k

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Top Stocks Keep Spending Alive

What a wonderful time to be alive! Never has it been easier to feel superior to our fellow man! So many dopey ideas...so many preposterous delusions! So many fools...so eager to part ways with their money!

We have to pinch ourselves occasionally...and remind ourselves that it is real.

Yes, after the real estate bubble burst, we thought the fun might be over. But no! In come the feds. As you know, what brought about the housing bubble was a sort of madness that caused people to do the damnedest things with their money. But now, the feds are doing even stranger and crazier things!

Actually, we were happy to see the bubble blow up. Spending more than you make is hardly a formula for wealth-building. All in all, we figured our countrymen would be happier, over the long run, if they started saving their money rather than squandering it. Besides, we liked seeing Wall Street getting whacked - those clowns deserved it.

The savings rate in the United States is rising quickly. We reported the falling balances in credit card debt last week. And the last figure we saw showed the savings rate had jumped from about zero to over 3%. Our guess is that it is headed back to about 10%. That's about where it is "supposed" to be.

But thank God for the feds. While the imperial citizens sober up...their government builds a still. While citizens save 3% of GDP, their government spends 15% - and more.

The feds' budget deficit for March alone would have been enough for an entire year during Reagan's...or even Bush's...term. At $196 billion, it is the monstrous fruit of crashing tax revenues and soaring government expenses.

Just a few months ago, we were talking about a $1 trillion budget deficit. When the discussion began, most people refused to believe it. How could the government - in good conscience - spend $1 trillion it didn't have? Here at The Daily Reckoning, we guessed that the deficit would go to $2 trillion. Not that we'd done any calculations...it just seemed to us that people consistently underestimated both the downward pressure from the bear market and the upward pressure from the politicians. The bear taketh away. The jackasses giveth. Well, at least they're trying, right? Of course, we'd all be a lot better off if they didn't do anything. But then, it wouldn't be so much fun to watch.

The total committed to this bailout campaign is now said to be about $13 trillion. Let's see, that's more than $100,000 per family. Better start working on your own 'personal bailout' sooner, rather than later. We have all the tools you need to get started in our "Emergency 'Personal Bailout' Bundle" which you can find here.

It's the "Theft of a Nation" says Stewart Dougherty:

"The United States of America, or, more precisely, the American people, are said to own 261 million ounces of gold, supposedly stored in the same Fort Knox vault that Goldfinger found so appealing. At $1,000 per ounce, the people's gold has a value of $261 billion dollars. TARP 1 alone has cost 270% of the entire value of that singular, tangible American asset. The total $13 trillion bailout cost thus far is 4,980% of the value of America's gold asset. Fort Knox has been robbed..."

They're squandering $13 trillion...or nearly 49 times the U.S. gold supply. But heck, it's worth it. The whole thing is very entertaining now...and will be hugely instructive in the future. When this is over, the next two are three generations are sure to say: well...we won't do THAT again!

And with that, we turn to Addison, who tells us of a strange new trend for the greenback:

"Last week, stocks market capped off their best rally since 1933," writes Addison in today's issue of The 5 Min. Forecast.

"The S&P 500 rose for the fifth straight week, now 27% off its low in early March. You'll have to go back to the Great Depression to find a 23-day rally that sizable.

"Thursday alone, the Dow ended up 3.1% - back above 8,000 for the first time since early February.

"And with this historic run, we see a peculiar new trend for the US dollar. Observe:

phpmsU4Ie

"On Thursday, however, the dollar rallied big right along with top stocks. Today, the Dow opened down 100 points...and the dollar index dropped nearly a point. It's a curious trend developing with this 'sucker's rally'. When it sputters...and the dollar plays along...look out below."

Each weekday, Ian and Addison bring readers the The 5 Min Forecast, an executive series e-letter that provides a quick and dirty analysis of daily economic and financial developments - in five minutes or less.

The 5 is a free service to subscribers of our paid publications, including the newly relaunched Richebächer Letter. Dr. Kurt Richebächer could often be found in the pages of the DR, or his newsletter, The Richebächer Letter, calling for the demise of the dollar...along with the collapse of the housing market and the end of the over-extended American consumer, as far back as 2000.

Many of you felt the void left by Dr. Kurt Richebächer when he passed away in 2007, so in his honor we've formed a brand new 'wealth protection' society. For a short time, we'll waive the membership fees to the Richebächer Society - but only to those who act before April 20, at 5 PM. Get all the information here.

And back to Bill, with more thoughts:

We are still a bit stuck on the $13 trillion price tag for these bailouts.

Makes you wonder where former Fed chairman Paul Volcker, who was tapped back in November by Obama to head the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, is in all this.

Our friend Barry Ritholtz was pondering the same thing in a post on his blog, The Big Picture.

"If you want to know why the administration's approach to the credit crisis has been lacking, and why the Obama bailouts looks surprisingly like the Bush bailouts, consider this: No Volcker."

Barry mentions an interesting WSJ piece that points out that Paul Volcker was put at the head of an advisory board that has yet to meet. Says the WSJ:

"'Paul was surprised' at the failure to consult him, particularly on issues of financial rescue after his dominant role in resolving financial crises in the 1980s, says one person who has spoken to Mr. Volcker recently."

"To review," writes Barry, "You have access to the greatest Fed chief in history, and you are choosing not to use him during the greatest crisis since the Great Depression."

Our sentiment exactly.

A dear reader poses a question:

"...if you were a single mom, with a little cash & metal in a QRP, who had cut her expenses very, very low, who is staying home to take care of her own children and do contract work to get by AND save a little...what else should I be doing? Move to the country or should I move out of the states?

"Invest in shoes and underwear for my kids now pre-inflation, prepare for self defense, food storage, learn to grow vegetables...I am doing these things, but I just can't get myself to feel 'safe.' I am scared witless because I am afraid, not of a depression...that I can survive...I grew up really poor, but I am scared of the chaos that will ensue and the political/military escalation that will follow that...now that is what keeps me up at night

"What would you tell your Mom or your sister to do? I am really not feeling very well about all of this. How can I get to where I feel safe? I am thinking maybe the Appalachian Mountains or something. The government terrifies me."

What would we say? "Hmmm..." we would probably begin. "As to the financial crisis, we can provide some ideas."

But our reader seems to have already gotten the gist of them already. For the benefit of other readers, the central banks of the world have failed to do their jobs - to provide the world with sound, reliable money. This means that we each have to be our own central banker - stocking a supply of gold against the inevitable collapse of paper currencies. It is as if we couldn't trust the power company to provide electricity. We have to have a portable generator on hand - just in case. We like to have some gold...just in case.

But our reader has an even deeper fear: that we can't trust our government to provide security either. Security is the main reason governments exist - that, and larceny. Nevertheless, they don't always do a good job of providing security. In fact, they tend to fall down on the job often - usually when security is most needed. Most of the time, not much security is called for. People get along, more or less. Most people wouldn't kill their neighbors - even if they thought the cop on the beat could be bought. But occasionally, they get an evil urge and you need someone to step in with a blackjack and a pair of cuffs.

But government can be a source of insecurity, too. One security team attacks another from time to time. And occasionally, the security providers attack the people for whom they are supposed to be providing security. Here in Argentina, for example, there have been few genuine threats from the outside - at least not since the emperor of Paraguay, goaded by his Irish mistress, made a mad bid for control of the country in the mid-19th century. But in the 1970s, the government decided it had quite a few people it would rather not have. They were "disappeared." No doubt, many who were not disappeared were glad to be rid of them. They were troublemakers. But our reader seems to be afraid that she may among those who are disappeared from the United States in the next go-round of violence...or maybe just that she will be caught in the crossfire.

The odds are probably against it. But who knows?

"America: a super-power no more," says a headline at the Christian Science Monitor. Empires come and go. They don't always go easy.

Lately, we've been thinking: There are only three important decisions you make in life: what you do; whom you do it with; and where you do it.

Buenos Aires is a big city with many different neighborhoods. Your editor is staying in the Palermo Soho area.

We have lived in many different places and visited many more. We don't recall ever seeing a place that seemed so delightfully lively and convenient. The cobblestone streets are flanked by buildings of only one or two stories. Some have Belle Epoque or classical facades. Most are more modern with all manner of style - but leaning towards the contemporary chic. It's a neighborhood blessed by a lack of urban planning. Houses, apartment building, high-fashion shops, bars, supermarkets, restaurants, auto repair garages - you can find them all in a single block. The sidewalks tend to be rough; they've been patched, neglected, repaired, and overlooked for many, many years. There are also many trees - from the stately old sycamores on Thames Street, to many smaller, newer varieties we can't identify.

Within a block or two of our hotel there are dozens of eateries - from simple pizza parlors to very serious restaurants. The weather is perfect this time of year, so people sit outside all day long. They take their coffee in the morning...then lunch slides into mid- afternoon...and dinner slips all the way to 10 PM. Nightclubs open after midnight. By the time your editor is waking up, the revelers are still wandering the streets.

We went to lunch on a street corner near the hotel. The place was what Argentina is famous for - a steak restaurant. The restaurant had put a roof over the sidewalk and placed tables and chairs under it. We dined on white tablecloths...and watched people ambling along...mostly families with young children and some tourists. It was so agreeable...we wondered why we remained in Europe, where it is twice as expensive...and the weather is twice as bad.

Day and night, people walk the streets...shopping...going to cafes and art galleries...

This morning we heard a flute. It sounded like Pan calling to the water nymphs. A man rode slowly down the street on a bicycle onto which he had fashioned a grinding wheel for sharpening knives. The flute was his way to let people know he was in the neighborhood.

A woman washed the sidewalk on the other side of the street. She has a shoe store, with a big blue arch on the roof. The window displayed what we would call "tennis shoes," even though they're not really for playing tennis. They're replicas of the kind of shoes we wore in the '50s and '60s...Keds...or Chuck Taylor's All Stars...with rubber soles and canvas uppers. Now, they must be in demand. Every shoe store has thousands of them, in all colors - from fuchia to silver lame.

"Why not move to Buenos Aires?" we posed a loaded question to Elizabeth. It went off immediately.

"Are you crazy? We moved from the United States to Europe. We've already gone through that once. Have you forgotten how hard it was to figure everything out? Finally, after all these years, we have friends...we have things to do...we have things set up the way we want. Well...almost the way we want. Even after 15 years, we're still not totally settled.

"Why would you want to go through all that again?"

"I'll get back to you when I have a good answer," we said in retreat.

One final thing. We're headed up into the mountains. You won't hear from us for a week, but we leave you in the hands of Kate Incontrera and the rest of the DR contributors.

Tales from a Bankrupt Economy

"Pssst...hey kid... You, in the red robe...

"You're just graduating from college, right?

"You wanna make some real money?

"Then, rush to Detroit. Set up a law firm specializing in bankruptcy."

More advice to college graduates follows...(below)...

Two auto-parts suppliers have already filed under Chapter 11. GM is expected to do so momentarily.

Too bad about GM. It was set up in 1916. If it had been able to hold together for another 7 years, it would have gone 100 years without having to declare bankruptcy.

All people die. All companies die, too. That's why 'buy and hold' is wishful thinking. Buy and hold long enough and you are sure to go broke. And die.

Eventually the undertakers and bankruptcy lawyers get you. And today...business is good in Detroit. What cleared the way for the GM bankruptcy was a deal with the bondholders...in which they take equity in exchange for their debt and agree not to contest the bankruptcy filing. Still, the deal - and other deals relating to it...including the presence of one very big and very odd shareholder, the government of the United States of America - is so complicated, it's bound to give bankruptcy lawyers plenty of work for many years.

But business seems to be picking up everywhere...at least, that's the impression you get from reading the paper. The war against capitalism seems to be going pretty well, in other words.

Yesterday, the rally continued on Wall Street, with the Dow up 103 points. Oil rose too. It is trading at $65 a barrel this morning. And look at gold - the old yellow metal is at $963 and still going up. We wouldn't be surprised if this trend continued.

Does this mean the feds are winning the war?

"Signs of life return to California stocks market," says the Financial Times.

Houses in many areas are selling for 60% less than they did two years ago. Two years ago, the average family couldn't come close to buying the average house. In didn't take a genius to figure out that that couldn't last. Who were they going to sell the average house to if not to the average family? Well, now the $600,000 dump from '07 has been foreclosed and is now on sale for $200,000. That means that the average family that still has a job can buy it.

And it doesn't hurt that the feds make it easier - distorting the stocks market with an $8,000 tax credit and EZ financing from the FHA.

Wait a minute! Wasn't it easy financing that got us into this mess? Of course it was. But that little insight doesn't stop the feds. They're convinced that if they can just put out enough new credit, it will somehow make the problems caused by having too much credit before go away.

So here's the deal. You can get the FHA to finance a house, long-term, at just 4.9%. That's just 0.3% higher than the long-term Treasury yield. Even without opening the closet door, we smell a rat. How can lenders expect to make any money - after delinquencies, defaults, foreclosures, resales...to say nothing of legal and administrative work - on a 0.3% margin? And that's assuming their cost of money is the same as the feds' cost - the long term T-bond rate.

Maybe they should read the paper. John Authers, writing in the Financial Times:

"The latest US mortgage delinquency figures are horrendous, with more than 6% of prime mortgages in arrears - more than double the long-term norm. A quarter of sub-prime loans are delinquent."

And although one in 6 homeowners is underwater...

"The peak of foreclosures has yet to come,' Harvard historian Niall Ferguson adds. 'They will go from 40 percent of all home sales to literally 100 percent by the end of the year.'"

Well, the bankers - as everyone knows - are a lot smarter than we are. They're probably up to the old trick: borrowing short, lending long. The spread between the long rate and the short rate has never been great. We explained why yesterday. The Chinese don't trust Tim Geithner to keep his word. For that matter, neither do we. They've switched from buying long bonds to buying short bills. So, the bankers - including those working for the FHA - can borrow very cheaply in the short-term stocks market of 2010. And they can make cheap mortgage loans, long-term. And then, when the short rates go up...and they need to roll over their short- term loans...they can get in line at the courthouse, behind GM and the parts manufacturers...

..and pick out a gaudy casket too.

Now over to Ian with some more news from today's 5 Minute Forecast:

"As we prepare to wrap up the month of May, one thing's clear: Commodities are back, baby.

php82ctLT

"That's a 12.3% monthly move for the CRB, an index that tracks most of the world's heavily traded commodities. The stars have aligned in the favor of hard assets this month: Global investors are collectively more optimistic. There's a strong reboom vibe emanating from BRIC nations (see below). And perhaps above all, there's this:

phphPQZEs

"After falling through its 200-day moving average earlier this month, the dollar index has been in steady decay. The index crashed through another important level this morning -- the 80 score, a long-standing point of support. Will the greenback fall further still? Barring the top stocks market reversal and flight to safety in the dollar, or some kind of wild government intervention (both totally possible), we don't see what's keeping the dollar from testing 2008 lows."

Every business day Ian Mathias writes for The 5 Min Forecast, an executive series e-letter that provides a quick and dirty analysis of economic and financial developments - in five minutes or less.

It's a service available free only to Agora Financial's paid publication subscribers. And in the next few hours, one of these publications, Energy & Scarcity Investor, is set to release an exclusive report that could make you gains upwards of 15,000% in less than 2 years.

Now, that might sound crazy, but isn't worth 10 minutes to judge for yourself?

Click here for all the information. But act now. This report expires at 5 PM today!

And now back to Bill with some more thoughts:

Jobless claims eased for the second week in a row. Hallelujah. The economy is still unloading jobs, but at least its not dumping them like it was earlier in the year. Which leads a number of economists to the old refrain: 'the worst is behind us.'

Meanwhile, from Japan comes encouraging news. The Nippon economy is increasing its industrial output at the fastest pace in 56 years. And oil is signaling a global rebound, isn't it?

"I don't think so," says MoneyWeek's editor in Paris. "There is no increase in oil consumption. Instead, consumption is still going down. What we're seeing is speculation. The central banks are adding to the funds available for speculation. So far, that money isn't reaching the consumer economy...it's mostly in the natural resources market betting on inflation."

Everywhere you look, dear reader, is a war zone. Nothing is safe. The feds' war against deflation does collateral damage to almost everyone and everything.

But you have to give the feds credit. Raw materials...gold...oil...emerging stock markets - all have seen big increases. Top stocks market too are showing big gains.

But the feds' plan is not to reflate the asset bubble, but to reflate the economy. For that, they need rising consumer prices. Consumers need to borrow...and spend. They'll do so, say economists, when prices rise and their dollars lose value. So far, milk and potatoes aren't cooperating. The price of milk fell so low that farmers slaughtered their herds. As for potatoes...we don't know.

In Europe, inflation has disappeared. This is the first time the euro zone has ever had flat and falling prices. In America, too, consumer price inflation is ebbing away.

In other words, the feds may be winning a battle but losing the war!

As usual, there's a lot of smoke and fog on this battlefield. Consumer confidence is rising...but so is unemployment. The New York Times says US joblessness may soon pass Europe's habitually-high rates. The Chinese are still buying America's debt - but only the short-term stuff. America's biggest industrial company goes broke...the government takes a key role in key industries...but investors buy more top stocks for 2010!

If you look through your binoculars you will have a hard time figuring out who's really winning. In the confusion of the battlefield, even a hardened veteran often fails to tell which way the fight is going. In fact, you might see rising stock prices of 2010 and get the wrong idea...like watching the Yankees get chased back to Washington after the first battle of Bull Run; you might have thought that that was all there was to it. The war was over and the South had won.
 
Not quite.
Last weekend, we journeyed to Boston to attend a college graduation. Thousands of callow scholars were on display. Each was handed his papers...and then marched out of the hockey stadium. To the tune of 'Pomp & Circumstance,' wearing a long, red robe, he entered the outside world solemnly...like a patsy joining a poker game.

So far, not a single major university has asked us to make the commencement address. Nor a minor college. Not even a school of cosmetology or taxidermy. But here at the Daily Reckoning headquarters in London, protected by a broad ocean and a narrow reading of the First Amendment, we will give them - and UK graduates too - advice no one asked for.

"Plastics," was the advice given to college graduates in Mike Nichols' '67 film. But that was when there was still hope for America's manufacturing sector. Even then, it was too late. The percentage of GDP from the manufacturing sector fell for the next four decades, from over 20% in the last '60s to barely 12% last year. Better advice would have been 'derivatives.' They stank just as bad, but they were much more profitable. While only 8% of GDP, finance accounted for 40% of corporate profits in 2007. And derivatives grew from nothing to a face value of 16 times the GDP of the entire planet.

But your elders are always giving you bum advice.

"You cannot decline the burdens of empire and still expect to share its honors," said Pericles to the class of 430BC. He lived during a time not unlike your parents' era in the USA - when Athens was on top of the world. But vanity got the better of him. He launched an attack on Sparta that backfired badly. He soon died of plague and Athens was not only ruined, but enslaved. Athens' 'golden age' turned to lead. Young Athenians should have shrugged off the burden rather than accept it. You should do the same.

When you were born 20-some years ago, the nation's total debt per person was less than $90,000 - adjusted to '09 dollars, of course. While that was a lot of money, it was nothing compared to what was coming. Now it's $186,717 per person - more than twice as much, in real terms. Fortunately, private debt is not inheritable. But it comes to you as a lien against property. Instead of paying off their mortgages and leaving you a house, free and clear, the baby boomer generation spent the 'equity' in their houses even faster than they got it. House prices rose. But mortgage debt rose faster. While your grandparents owned 80% of their houses, by 2007, the typical homeowner only really owned 4 rooms of an 8-room house. And then, when house prices fell, so did his remaining equity...to the point where one out of six homeowners in America is now underwater. You could still eventually inherit a house, but you may have to scrape the barnacles off the front porch.

But that's not even the half of it. While your parents had control of the US government they allowed themselves a little larceny. Add the unfunded retirement and healthcare benefits they voted for themselves to the official national debt, and together they are scheduled to cost your generation 4 times the total annual output of the US. This is over and above the private debt they accumulated.

Some of this debt can be carried. Some will have to paid down. But as it stands, as much as $77 trillion of post-'09 earnings must be stolen from the future in order to pay for the liquor your parents drank...the bombs they dropped on god-forsaken foreigners...and the interest on their debts. So, forget about saving for a European vacation or a house of your own. Even if every penny of your savings - and every other American's savings - are put to the task you will still be paying for your parents' expenses all your life.

But wait, there's more! The burden is getting heavier. Federal budget projections show an additional $7 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years. Described as the cost of fighting recession, the present generation buries its own mistakes under cash that the next generation hasn't even earned yet. Today's bankers, businessmen and speculators are being bankrolled by you - tomorrow's bankers, businessmen and speculators. Today's homeowners get a helping hand...from whom? Tomorrow's homeowners - you. Today's employees get a boost too. Same story. Where do you think the money came from to pay Wall Street bonuses this year? How do you think GM stays in business...and Fannie Mae...and AIG... Who pays those salaries? Who pays to keep troops all over the world and keep old people supplied with new drugs? Who pays for hundreds of billions' worth of 'shovel ready' boondoggles? You will. At least, that's the plan.

The luck of one generation is the curse of the next. Like Pericles, your parents inherited a dollar; they leave you a peso. They took over the strongest, richest, most competitive nation in the world. And like Pericles they minded everyone's business but their own. Now, not only does the US owe money all over town, its government puts out trillions more in IOUs every year - each one with your name on it. You're not even out in the real world yet, and you're getting the bill for 50 cents of every dollar the feds spend - almost none of it earmarked for you. But that is the thing about the real world your teachers probably forgot to tell you about. It is more unreal and fantastical than anything you studied.

Here's what's real: You've been dealt a bad hand. From the bottom of the deck...your parents have slipped you some nasty cards. Our advice? Fold 'em. Get up from the table before they clean you out.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

A Second Chance to Buy AT&T at the Turn of the Century

Wall Street is constantly hung up on finding the next giant economy. Is China going to continue to grow as a superpower? What about India?

The suits on the Street ask themselves these questions every day. They don't realize that these superpowers aren't the only places you can make big money.

Indonesia has the world's fourth largest population, over 200 million people, but it ranks No. 16 in GDP purchasing power. Poverty and disease plague this sleeping giant. That's why the median age of the country is just 28 years old.

The country has made some progress of late through the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Elected in 2004, Yudhoyono was an already important and popular figure in Indonesia after a few stints in the first couple cabinets of the fairly new democracy. He has the rank of General and is a very influential military leader worldwide.

He continues to stay popular and will, in all probability, get reelected later this year. Yudhoyono is not only a military-focused politician, he's also an economic visionary in a country that desperately needs that kind of vision.

In just his first term, he's already signed an important trade agreement with Japan, opening his country's enormous population to the world's second largest economy.

Barack Obama recently invited Yudhoyono to the White House to discuss the U.S.'s role in helping developing countries during this economic recession. The two met again a few weeks later at the G-20, which Indonesia recently joined.

All of this prestige helped Yudhoyono make Time's 100 Most Influential Persons list this year. And it's also helped segments of Indonesia's population obtain some new G-20 benefits.

Even with all of the international help, Indonesia may not ever become a superpower. But the country does provide unique opportunities…if you know where to look.

The Growth Story of the Century

One of the most exciting growth industries in the Far East is Internet service providers. According to InternetWorldStats.com, 73.8% of Japanese and 76.1% of South Koreans are online. Even about one in every four Chinese citizens now has Internet access...

Indonesia is trailing in the region with just 10.5% of its population online. Here's our growth opportunity! In 2000, only two million Indonesians had the Internet. That number is set to reach 25 million this year.

But this growing ISP industry is only part of the story…

While Indonesia continues to struggle with some basic luxuries that the Western world takes for granted — such as cable television and wireless Internet access — its citizens do have cell phones. In fact, around 58% of the population already has a cell phone subscription — that's over 130 million subscriptions.

Even with so many current subscribers, growth hasn't slowed at all. The mobile phone industry is still growing at a 36% clip annually.

The reason I bring these two industries up together is because of a unique opportunity. I found a company with a 46% market share of both the broadband Internet and the cellular industries. That's the top spot. This is like finding Ma Bell at the turn of the 20th century — minus the anti-trust issues.

You see, this company's largest investor is the Indonesian government. It's a rock solid company that I'll be recommending early next week to my Lifetime Income Report readers.

The Japan Baloney

Everyone's a Japan expert these days. It is a morality tale, supposedly, of banks and government "refusing to deal with the problem" - the problem is usually "bad debt" - resulting in endless stagnation.

It is a total fantasy.

Best Stocks For 2010

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon," we are told. Almost everybody understands that when a currency loses value, it eventually takes more and more currency to buy things.

It works the other way as well. When a currency rises in value, it takes less and less currency to buy things. Let's call this process "monetary deflation."

This hardly ever happens. Inflation has natural temptations, but there is normally little political support for sustained deflation. Beginning in 1985 - with a bit of international arm-twisting known as the Plaza Accord - Japan experienced probably the longest and most dramatic monetary deflation (rising currency) in the last 500 years, if not all of human history.

This is obvious in foreign exchange rates. Beginning in late 1985, the yen soared above 250/dollar level that it traded in the early 1980s, eventually peaking at 80/dollar - a threefold increase - in 1995. Ouch. The yen's rise is more definitively described by the ratio of the yen to the eternal measure of value, which is gold.

This may puzzle some people. Wasn't the Japanese economy roaring into a bubble in the late 1980s? Indeed it was - driven in part by the 300 basis point decline in interest rates that resulted from the soaring yen. You can imagine the effects on the already-overheated property sector. Also, the government was engaging in a series of dramatic tax cuts, in line with the similar Reagan tax cuts in the U.S.

This, plus a healthy dose of irrational exuberance, was enough to keep the economy humming even though the CPI hovered around a negative 2.0% in 1987, 1988 and 1989 (when adjusted for an increase in the consumption tax).

However, once the asset bubble popped, the full effects of the monetary deflation were felt. The yen kept rising, eventually hitting a peak near 28,000/oz. of gold in 2000. This was about a seven-fold rise in the yen's value from its 1980 nadir near 200,000/oz., and a threefold rise from the mid-1985 value of about 90,000/oz.

I think it is fair to characterize the property stocks market of the late 1980s as a "bubble" similar to the one we've experienced in the U.S., but it did not die naturally. No, the Japanese property stocks market was pushed.

phpHxJUan
 

Best Stocks Investment of 2010

The government, aware of unsustainable asset valuations, embarked in a draconian series of steps to depress property prices throughout the 1990s. This not only blew away the froth of unsustainable valuations, it also demolished the real, fundamental value of property. They began with a series of tax measures on January 1, 1990 - the first day of the bear stocks market - which eliminated certain preferential capital gains tax treatments for property. To take a few of a great many such steps which followed: In 1992, the tax rate on short-term capital gains (under 2 years) on property was raised to 90%. Long-term gains were taxed at 60%. A 0.3% National property tax was introduced (this was several multiples greater than existing property taxes). A City Planning Tax of 0.3%. A Registration and License Tax of 5% of the sale value of a property. A Real Estate Acquisition Tax of 4%. An Office Tax of 0.25%. A Land Ownership Tax of 1.4%. Even the regular property tax, the Fixed Assets Tax, was effectively raised by several multiples. From 1990 to 1996, Japanese property values imploded by as much as 70%. However, the revenues from this tax rose by 46%. You can do the math.

All of this resulted in epic levels of bad debts at banks. For some reason, the banks managed to get the blame for this, as if they were responsible for the unprecedented monetary deflation during the decade, or the tax assault on property owners.

Banks wrote off and liquidated loans continuously during the decade. However, the economy was unable to improve due primarily to the hideous monetary deflation, so more bad debts kept piling up as one borrower after another reached the end of their resources. This gave the appearance that the banks "weren't doing anything about their bad debts." As fast as they bailed out their boat, new water was coming in.

In 2000, the government, still convinced that banks "weren't doing anything about their bad debts," undertook an extensive audit of bank assets on a loan-by-loan basis. They wanted to determine if there were any "hidden bad debts," borrowers that had effectively gone bust but were being carried as performing loans. Then, having dug all the skeletons out of the closet to their satisfaction, they mandated that the banks resolve all these bad debts over the course of the next few years. Banks were required to state their progress under this plan in their financial statements.

Thus, we can see with great precision what banks were up to. As of September 30, 2000, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group had "bankrupt and quasi-bankrupt assets" of 653 billion yen. These were the real bad loans - those that had defaulted. There were another 2,594 billion of "doubtful assets" - these were loans that were paid in full, but where the borrower was in some difficulty (a large cohort after 10 years of recession).

By March 31, 2003, SMFG had reduced this original group of "bankrupt and quasi-bankrupt assets" to 144.5 billion, a decline of 78%. Problem solved? As of March 31, 2003, the bank had 524.9 billion of "bankrupt and quasi-bankrupt assets," with the difference made up not by leftovers from a decade earlier, but the brand new bad debts caused by the recession of 2001-2002.

Banks were doing more-or-less what they should have been doing. The government, far from "doing nothing" about the problem, was actually carpet-bombing the economy with the most destructive sorts of new taxes, on top of the horrible monetary deflation that persisted until about 2003.

The Bank of Japan eventually figured out the problem and implemented its "ryoteki kanwa" plan, which was translated into English as "quantitative easing." With the decline of the yen beyond its 10- and 20- year moving averages, monetary deflation was not a problem in Japan after 2003. Finally free of the crushing monetary deflation, the economy managed a modest rebound. Yet, the economy has been strangely moribund, even taking into account the difficulties happening worldwide since 2007.

Best Stocks Market 2010

Is the government still "doing nothing?" Hardly. The Japanese government's tax barrage continues to this day. Already there is an annual rise in payroll taxes, scheduled for every year between 2004 and 2017, which will eventually take the payroll tax rate from 13.6% to 18.3%. (Employers match this, and there is no maximum income to which it applies.) And what about the increase in taxes on dividends from 10% to 20%? Or the introduction of a brand-new capital gains tax on equities of 20%, which had effectively been tax-free before? Or the effective 25% increase in personal income taxes, the result of the elimination of a 20% tax cut introduced in 1998? On top of all that, politicians are talking about increasing the consumption tax (similar to a sales tax) from 5% presently to 10% or higher. Until a 3% consumption tax was introduced in 1989, there was no consumption tax at all in Japan, not even at the prefectural or municipal level.

This performance is spookily similar to the policies of both Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt, both of whom raised taxes throughout the 1930s and squandered boatloads of money on public works and other such spending "stimulus," with little long-term effect.

There is certainly a lesson to be learned from Japan, but it is not the one that most people think. The lesson is: keep your money stable, and taxes low. When Japan was on the gold standard in the 1950s and 1960s, and reduced taxes steadily, it was the growth wonder of the world.

Brazilian Wind Energy Stocks

Here in Rio, I'm finding that Brazil is moving from one clean energy success to the next...

In 2008, ethanol made from homegrown sugarcane outsold gasoline in this leading emerging market.

And 90% of the cars and light trucks Brazilian motorists bought last year can run on biofuel, petroleum, or both!

Even the national oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) is in on the action, selling Alcool Comum (regular ethanol) next to gasoline for 2/3 of the price.

Compare that to U.S. corn ethanol, which is collapsing under high harvest and transport costs, low efficiency, and a complete destruction of investor enthusiasm.

Brazil's biofuel success stems from the government's ProAlcool program, initiated in 1975 to mitigate Brazil's damage from international oil shocks.

Now, Brazil is kicking into high gear with ProInfa, a major national initiative to derive electricity from alternative power sources.

Where ProAlcool has made Brazil the world leader in highly efficient sugarcane ethanol, ProInfa may well put Brazil ahead of developed countries in another key energy sector.

But the most pressing question for me and everyone else at the Latin American Renewable Energy Finance Forum this week has been simple:

Where will the money come from? Top stocks market of 2010!

Lula's Got the Last Laugh

Of the BRIC emerging market pantheon (including Russia, India, and China), Brazil is the closest to the United States and Wall Street. Of course the country feels the pain of the global recession, but President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has used this opportunity to lead the charge for developing countries' having a greater voice in international institutions.

That goes especially for the World Bank and IMF, both based in Washington.

Lula has spent heavily to expand public services and bring the benefits of growth to millions of underserved Brazilians. Often, the IMF has cried foul because they like developing countries to slash social programs and even infrastructure spending for the sake of national balance sheets.

Lula's getting the last laugh now, as ficsal chaos in the world's richest countries leaves plenty of room to challenge the Washington standard.

"Maybe we will give money to the IMF," Brazil's Finance Minister Guido Mantega said on April 25. "But we need to see some progress on reforms first."

That's right, Brazil is becoming a creditor to the International Monetary Fund. As the IMF announced its first-ever bond issue this week, Brazil's clout is growing by the day.

As officials push for reforms on the international scene, ProInfa aims to ensure that Brazilians do not anchor their growth to fossil-fuel infrastructure.

Brazil's national energy mix is already comprised of 45% renewables, the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) reports.

Compare that to an average of 6% for developed countries and you'll see how far ahead Brazil already is!

ProInfa will cause Brazil's advantage to increase even more, and the investment opportunities in Brazil's clean energy sector will grow along with it.

Investing in Brazil's Clean Electricity Boom Stocks

Brazil's national wind energy resource potential is estimated at around 250GW, concentrated in the northeast, coastal south, and northwest of the major cities Rio, Sao Paulo, and Belo Horizonte. 

brazil wind energy map

The government is holding its first national auction for wind energy development permits this November. International companies like GDF/Suez, Areva, and Enel are chomping at the bit to get to the front of the line.

The one factor that may supercharge ProInfa's wind aspect actually has nothing to do with the tropical breezes or foreign financiers. . .

It's steel prices that we're looking at.

The World Steel Association released its revised full-year 2009 forecast on Monday April 27, saying global steel demand will drop by 15%.

In the U.S., that number is a much higher 36%. The EU will see wind demand plummet by double the global average, with a 30% decline.

Prices, as a result, have to come down hard.

That's a boon to wind farm developers around the world, but especially in Brazil, where the country's fiscal health has brought it more IMF bargaining power and the ability to pounce on low steel prices, seeding wind farms and even local wind turbine production.

Across Latin America and the Caribbean, residential electricity demand is expected to quadruple before 2030, and more rural customers are coming onto grid networks all the time.

The demand is there in spades, and if Brazil's budding wind energy industry can vertically integrate with low-cost steel, the country basically gets a discount on a new domestic electricity source.

In Green Chip International, co-editor Nick Hodge and I are covering all the angles for how this could play out― and recommending the best stocks to profit for 2010.

We will be watching Brazil's wind auctions carefully, but also taking note of demand trends to make sure this is no flash in the pan.

I've been filing exclusive video reports already for GCI subscribers to update them on related best stocks and also give them the leg up on all the info I'm getting here in Brazil.

That includes business contacts and people from all walks of life. And it doesn't hurt that I'm fluent in Portuguese, so this isn't the kind of research you get from just reading the Wall Street Journal.

Bottom line―Brazil's renewable energy track record with ethanol tells us to bet on success.

The Used Car Industry Salesman

Yesterday was a holiday in the US. Little news from that quarter.

But while Americans were enjoying their backyard barbecues, the rest of the world turned.

"Obama plans 'leaner' car industry," says the BBC.

While most readers will focus on the last three words of that sentence, we direct your attention to the first two. The subject is the important part...not the predicate.

That the car industry may or may not get 'leaner' is of little interest to us. It will do what it needs to do. But that the president of the United States of America is now creating the business plan for an automobile company is surely a sign of something big. The world has already turned...perhaps more than we realize.

It was only a few months ago...we're almost sure...that a private company figured out for itself how it would compete. If it was well- managed - and lucky - it would grow. If it made a serious mistake, it would go out of business...leaving the premises vacant for another entrepreneur.

Americans not only accepted this model, they applauded it. They thought the "free enterprise" system was the best in the world. They believed it was responsible for their wealth...their progress...and their place in the world.

Top Stocks Investment 2010

Now, they seem to have come to believe something else: that the president of the United States - an elected politician - should have a direct say in how individual private enterprises are organized and run.

But these are the same people who elected Bill Clinton and George W. Bush - twice! They'll believe anything...

"Power Pendulum Swings Toward Washington," says another paper.

People think capitalism has failed them. They never understood what capitalism was...and wouldn't have wanted it at all if they had known what it was all about. Still, that doesn't mean they won't come up with something worse...

Capitalism is full of what Galbraith called "innocent frauds." The capitalists try to exploit the workers. The workers try to take advantage of the capitalists. And the managers try to put one over on them both.

But now, the innocent frauds of capitalism are being replaced by the brute force of government. Now, the Obama team is calling the shots itself.

What does Barack Obama know about the car business? Ha...ha...ha...

Oh, you and your silly questions...

The role of government is commonly misunderstood. It is thought to be an impartial judge...an objective arbiter between competing interests, always asserting the common interest over the narrow interests of the competitors themselves. It is nothing of the sort. It has its own interests...its own delusions of competence...its own lusts for power and money.

When the pendulum swings towards Washington it is always bad news. For no matter how big a mess GM's owners, managers and workers made of the auto business...Washington is sure to make a bigger one.

And now over to The 5 Min. Forecast, for some more news:

"Almost a year ago today," writes Ian in today's 5, "we forecast the 'second wave' of the housing crisis - a flood of option and Alt-A ARMs due to resent in early 2010. This chart was our pièce de résistance:

phpAg7vql
 

Top Stocks For 2010

"Today, we admit we were wrong... The second wave of the housing crisis will likely be even bigger then we expected. Analysts at Credit Suisse have updated this cult classic chart. Check it out:

php1LG3Uf

"Now, they've done you no favors with this whole color scheme/format change, so here's the meat of the updated chart. Credit Suisse added an 'unsecurtized ARM' category to the coming wave of resets, a move that bumps monthly loan resets up $2-5 billion. Monthly resets are now larger across the board.

"What's more, the 'second wave' crisis that was thought to be over in late 2011 is now crashing down well into 2012. According to the group, the swell of option and unsecuritized ARM resets will not only be bigger than the subprime fiasco, but now it's forecast to last twice as long. Hmmm..."

Each day, Ian Mathias writes for The 5 Min Forecast, a daily executive series e-letter that provides a quick and dirty analysis of economic and financial developments - in five minutes or less. It's a free service available only to subscribers to Agora Financial's paid publications.

One such newsletter, Bulletin Board Elite, details 30-day financial plan that could easily fund your retirement. And right now, you can grab 6 months of this service, absolutely free. But you must act now; this offer is only available for the next few hours. Click here for all the information.

Back to Bill in London:

A hedge fund manager came by the office yesterday.

"There's a new theory making its way around Wall Street," he explained. "Some people think that the government will succeed in reflating the bubble. They're putting so much money into it that they're going to be able to create one last super-bubble...a little like the 2004-2007 period."

Anything is possible. We were surprised the feds were able to inflate the last bubble. Back in 2002, we thought the bubble days were over - instead, the biggest bubble of all was still ahead.

The dotcom bubble had exploded. Top stocks market were going down. The economy was in recession. But the recession turned out to be very, very mild. Most people seemed unaware that there was a recession at all. Spending never went backwards...not an inch. In fact, all the trends already in place continued...and got much, much larger.

It is very different now.

"There's a major change going on; most people have not noticed," said our new friend. "People are spending money differently. First, it is obvious that they are forsaking the higher priced stores. Our fund is taking advantage of this in a very simple way. We're short the luxury retailers and long the discount stores. Because people are changing their shopping habits. And we expect this to go on for a long, long time.

"They're also buying different things. Everyone knows that sales of guns and ammunition are going through the roof. There are actual shortages of some items. But people are also stocking up on gardening supplies. They're planting gardens in order to grow some of their own food. And they're buying home entertainment systems - videos...sound systems and so forth. Instead of going out to the restaurants or the movies...they're staying home. So, they're making their homes more comfortable...and safer.

"Speaking of safer...sales of home safes are also taking off. They want to protect what they've got.

"And speaking of restaurants...have you looked at what is happening? Same phenomenon as in the retail sector. The lower priced, fast food places, such as MacDonald's, are doing fine. But just look at the 'casual' dining places - the places where middle class people go to eat...places like Appleby's and Friday's. They're losing a lot of business.

"What I think is happening is this: people are reorganizing themselves for a different, less expensive lifestyle. They're spending less already...but they're preparing to spend even less in the future. Instead of going out to the mall or to a restaurant...they're going to stay home."

Whence cometh this desire to stay home? Remember, this is not a recession...and not even a phony recession such as we had in 2001-2002. This is different. It's a balance-sheet depression. People are cutting back in order to repair balance sheets.

How do your repair a balance sheet? It's not as easy at taking it in to the Pep Boys...or the muffler shop. Instead, you have to pay down debt and increase equity. You have to become wealthier by saving money, rather than spending it. That's what companies are doing. That's what individuals are doing. And that's what the government ought to do.

Americans were saving almost nothing a couple years ago. But in the first quarter of this year, they saved 4.2% of disposable income - or $453 billion (annualized). That's up from just $20 billion a year before.

Saving money is the wrench you need to repair a balance sheet. After a very long time, finally, American grease monkeys are getting to work.

"Americans are making big structural changes in the way they live. These changes are going to have a big impact on the economy for many years to come," our friend concluded.

Top Stocks 2010

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Waking Up from the Happy Motoring Dream

Something like a week remains before General Motors is reduced to lunchmeat on industrial-capital's All-You-Can-Eat buffet spread. The wish is that its deconstructed pieces will re-organize into a "lean, mean machine" for producing "cars that Americans want to buy," and that, by extension, the American Dream of a Happy Motoring economy may be extended a while longer.

This fantasy rests on some assumptions that just don't "pencil out." One is that the broad American car-owning public can continue to buy their cars the usual way, on credit. The biggest emerging new class in America is the "former middle class." Credit kept the remnants of the middle class going for decades after their incomes stopped growing in the 1970s. Now, their incomes have stopped coming in altogether and they are sinking into swamp of entropy already occupied by the tattoo- for-lunch-bunch. Of course, this has plenty of dire sociopolitical implications.

Unfortunately, the big American banks did their biggest volume business in their biggest loans at the very time that that the middle class was on its way to becoming former. Now that the former middle class is arriving at its destination, the banks are so damaged by bad paper that they won't make loans to even the remnant of the remnant of the middle class. In other words, the entire model for financing Happy Motoring is now out-of-order, probably permanently.

Best Stocks For 2010

Even assuming some Americans can continue buying cars one way or another, I'm not convinced that we can make the kinds we fantasize about. Notice, nobody talks about hydrogen-powered fuel cell cars anymore. Why not? Because the technicalities and logistics could not be overcome at the scale required -- i.e. at the current scale of mass highway motoring and commuting. Sure, you could build a demonstration vehicle and run it around a test track a few times, but could you build a mass production car by the tens of millions that would run for 150,000 miles without a hugely expensive fuel cell change-out? No, at least not within the time-window that the liquid hydrocarbon fuel problem presented. Or could you construct a hydrogen fuel station (and product delivery) network replacing the old gasoline stations? Fuggeddabowdit. Hydrogen, as an element, was just too hard to move and contain. It's teeny-weeny atoms leaked out of valves and gaskets remorselessly and you couldn't pack enough into a tanker truck to make the trip to its destination worthwhile. Schemes to generate hydrogen on-board all ended up in the "perpetual motion" sink.

The current wish is that the dregs of GM and Chrysler will hire low- paid elves with no pension or health benefits and pump out hybrid and/or electric cars. It's conceivable that we could "reverse-engineer" a Prius or an Insight, but considering what a lousy job American car companies did on reverse-engineering everything that Japan or Germany pumped out over the past thirty-five years, the odds are pretty high that these new products will be just lame enough to fail against the established competition. What's more, they also present logistical and technical problems. For the hybrid, gasoline is still an issue (and Jevon's Paradox comes into play: the more efficient you make a means for using a resource, the more of that resource you will use). For both the hybrid and the electric car, the issue of how to get enough lithium for the batteries obtains, at least for now, given the current state- of-the-art battery technology. Most of this rare metal now comes from one place, Bolivia, and everybody wants "a piece" of it. Electric vehicles in large numbers depend on either coal or nuclear powered electric generation, each presenting special hazards. Both hybrids and electric cars would depend on the old installment loan purchase system -- at least to work in the current mode of suburban living, long-range commuting, and interstate highway travel.

Best Stocks Market 2010

Boone Pickens's plan of last year for converting the US car fleet to natural gas was another fantasy with wide appeal. But it depended on the companion fantasy of building massive wind-farm infrastructure on the great plains to shift natural gas use from power plants to vehicles, and the financial crisis has destroyed the capital necessary to even begin planning that project -- it even destroyed a large part of Mr. Pickens own capital reserves. Anyway, I would not be so sanguine about the long-term future of the shale gas plays that this scheme was based on. The depletion rates of these wells is horrendous and the amount of steel needed to keep production up is not consistent with the realities of the available infrastructure.

All the technologies under consideration are not likely to extend the Happy Motoring era. A prayerful reflection on them can only reinforce the specialness of oil and its byproducts -- cheap oil double-specially -- as well as reinforcing the reality that the cheap energy era itself is over. And, of course, in the play of events over the past several years we can see the relationship between cheap energy and easy credit, and how our entire economy has run aground, one way or another, on resource limits.

The implications of all this in the sociopolitical and geopolitical realms are pretty daunting. As long as we maintain Happy Motoring as the normal mode of existence in this country, we are going to see an ever-growing class of very resentful citizens pissed off at being foreclosed from it. In my oft-repeated scheme-of-things, this leads very quickly to the trap of political extremism, perhaps even corn-pone Nazism, as the system becomes increasingly difficult to prop up except by force. In geopolitical terms it leads to ever more dangerous international contests over the world's remaining oil reserves.

All this leads to two conclusions.

One is to accept the fact that the Happy Motoring era is over and to devote our remaining resources to re-localization, walkable communities, and public transit. It obviously requires a very drastic revision of our current collective self-image, of what we aspire to and who we are. If the car companies have any future at all, it should be based on making the rolling stock for public transit -- and for now the most intelligent choice for us is to fix the existing passenger railroad lines instead of venturing into grandiose new transit systems requiring stupendous capital outlays. Let the car era wind down gracefully. Triage and prioritize the highway maintenance agenda -- we won't be affluent enough to keep repaving the whole existing system -- and let other nations meet the diminishing demand for cars in the USA. This would be a "best case" scenario. (Other nations may decide to go further up the Happy Motoring road at their own eventual peril.)

My second conclusion is not so appetizing, namely that the bankruptcy of General Motors may set in motion a chain of events that will accelerate the destructive unwind of the bad credit economy, the damage to our bond values, the loss of faith in our currency, and the authority and legitimacy of our leaders. This last dire outcome might be allayed if, say, President Obama directed his policy efforts to the items in the paragraph above, that is, a reality-based agenda for true change in how we live -- but who can feel confident about that happening these days? Maybe it will take a horrifying chain of events to get Mr. Obama there. And then, tragically, he may be overwhelmed by the chain of events itself. I hope not.

Best Stocks Investment of 2010

Double the Gains Oil Stocks

Five months ago, we alerted you to a unique market opportunity...

... One that allows investors like you to collect double the gains oil makes on the trading floor.

The timing was perfect.

Since that first letter, oil -- as predicted -- quietly skyrocketed from the mid-$30 range to more than $60 a barrel.

And amazingly, hardly a single Wall Street analyst has covered it.

Meantime, the investors who followed our early recommendation have raked in a tidy profit...

And the run-up is only getting started.

In fact, as you'll see in the report I've attached below, this manic run on oil prices - and the opportunity to collect as much as 500% from it - could last for years.

It could be the easiest moneymaking opportunity of the year. And we found it burried inside the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook report...

... The annual, 578-page document blueprints exactly where our future energy sources will come from and when - for leaders and elite investors around the world.

And they read it for good reason...

Since its inception, the findings within the pages have been so accurate that the annual report reigns as "the authority of energy analysis and projections."

In fact, many people today trust their report without question.

I recently finished pouring through my copy.

It was handed to me after a fellow geologist, with first-hand experience in the Canadian oil sands, pointed out a shocking error - one that guarantees an imminent spike in the price of oil.

In short, the report claims that:

"Thanks to ever-dwindling supplies in the Middle East, the world will rely on Canada as the largest oil-producing country by 2010."

It's been their same projection since 2006. But there's just one problem.

The World Energy Outlook forgot the other half of the story...

You see, what this acclaimed report omits are the blatant details surrounding an imminent supply and demand bottleneck - one that's guaranteed to launch the price of oil violently back to the $100 plus range.

And that's a conservative estimate.

The good news is that we also, very recently, uncovered a secret investment - which most Americans know nothing about - that could hand you 500% gains as this spike hits.

And the best part is that it's not related to risky exploration or production companies, either. Instead, it's directly - dollar for dollar - related to the price of oil. Only this gem pays you DOUBLE the gains!

In fact, investors using this blockbuster already pocketed gains of more than 20% as oil popped!

I've written this letter to give you every last detail on exactly how it works and how it will happen. But time to catch the most profits is rapidly running out. So let me quickly share with you what it's all about.

Cashing In On A Much Needed Break

If you're like most of us, as oil continued to plummet from July's high of $147 down to $33 in December, you were sighing in relief.

After all, just imagine the shape we'd be in if everyone still had to shell out $4+ a gallon at your local Exxon during these times.

The fact is, that massive fallout in prices was just the break we needed.

But...

On the other hand, as oil started becoming "affordable" again - in the $30 range - it triggered an unstoppable chain of events that is guaranteed to drive the price of oil through the ceiling... and make investors like you filthy rich on the way.

You see, thanks to prices becoming too low, many of Canada's oil companies - resources that would supply crucially needed oil for the U.S. and rest of the world in a few months - couldn't stay in business.

And we need that oil, like a junkie needs his fix.

In fact, the U.S. depends on AND imports more oil from Canada than from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Libya, and Iraq - combined.

But one by one, we started finding major oil projects temporarily closing up shop. Drilling and refining stopped. Exploration and testing lost all capital. And their share prices ultimately plummeted.

Just to name a few examples:

StatoilHydro recently yanked the rug from under a $12 billion project in Canada's Peace River.

Both Nexen Inc and Opti Canada Inc were forced to halt advancement on major projects in Alberta.

Suncor, Canada's oldest oil sands operator, was forced to cut its spending by 33%, thanks to lack of profitablility with the current extremely low prices.

Oil giant Dutch Royal Shell's stopped work on several of their Canadian projects until prices regain strength.

The major partners in the proposed $24 billion Fort Hills oil-sands project in northern Alberta - Petro-Canada, Teck Cominco and UTS Energy - announced they may defer a decision to build an upgrading refinery northeast of Edmonton.

The list goes on.

As I mentioned earlier, within months, precious deposits of oil - even locations that were set to come online within weeks - are now months behind.

Some are trading now for a 90% discount.

But ironically, these outfits just created a powerful, self-fulfilling prophecy... an unstoppable bottleneck guaranteed to launch oil prices - very soon - through the roof.

And it's already started.

The Easy Way To Ride One Of The Most Profitable Bull Markets In History

Don't let oil's current price fool you this time.

Thanks to an already guaranteed shortage - just around the corner - these low prices won't be around for long.

Here are just a few more of the critical points from their latest report:

Global oil demand is projected to expand 2.2% a year, on average, reaching 95.8 million barrels a day by 2012, up from 86.13 million barrels a day this year. The forecast is based on global economic growth of about 4.5% annually. Oil demand is expected to increase most rapidly in Asia and the Middle East.

OPEC, which supplies more than 40% of the world's daily oil needs, will have little spare capacity left by 2012.

Increases from non-OPEC oil producers and biofuel producers should start flagging after 2009.

Natural gas markets will also be tight because of inadequate supply increases, limiting the ability of consumers to switch between oil and natural gas.

And that's just the beginning of the coming bottleneck. Here's what CNN recently reported:

And very soon, when word of the shortage hits, the exact same scenario that the hurricanes caused will already have started unfolding... only this time, the gains will hit much, much faster.

The smart money's already placing their bets.

They're already preparing to collect a fortune!

And if you're prepared, as I'll show you, step by step, in just one moment, you'll soon find that many of the very same companies that surged before will rapidly once again start compounding your wealth.

And here's the kicker:

This time, they won't need nearly as much capital to get started! Most of their infrastructure is already ready to go - and they're trading for just pennies on the dollar.

And if you think that's a juicy opportunity, let me show you how you could...

Collect Twice The Gains Of NYMEX Oil Traders... with One Simple, Yet Little-known Play

Listen...

We know oil prices are about to skyrocket. We know they're just around the corner. And we know that those slick traders playing NYMEX futures - guys who need hundreds of thousands of dollars just to get started - somehow always come out ahead.

But here's what you might not know...

Very recently, we've uncovered a rare investment that could pay you gains just as astonishing as any jackpot oil resource company out there - but without the risk!

Here's how it works.

You see, this special investment, which most investors know absolutely nothing about, doesn't even follow oil producers or risky exploration companies... it strictly follows the physical oil market.

And get this:

Thanks to the unique nature of this investment, you can actually get paid double the gains that oil makes!

In other words, a 10% gain pays you 20%... 20% gain pays you 40%... 100% rise in oil prices pays you 200%.

That means, if oil shoots 50% this year, which is our gross-underestimate, you double your money!

If oil shoots up to the $70 range... every $5,000 invested suddenly turns into a $10,000 payday!

With oil trading in the $60-range, this unique opportunity doesn't get any easier.

Just imagine how much money you'll be sitting on when oil prices plow through the $100 a barrel mark... again.

I'm not talking about several years down the line either. We could realistically find ourselves staring right down the throat of $100 before January... $140 by next April... even $200 a barrel by the end of 2010!

Every last detail is spelled out for you in our latest report. It's called, The Must-Own Oil Play... as Crude's Rally Goes Ballistic. And I want you to have it for FREE.

All you have to do is test out our top-performing trading advisory, The Pure Asset Trader (formerly Pure Energy Trader).

But before I divulge all the details about how to get started collecting a fortune in this Bottleneck Bull-Market, let me introduce myself and my team...

Introducing... The Pure Asset Trader

My name is Brian Hicks.

I'm the president of the investment research company Angel Publishing Investment Research. I've spent my entire investment career, going on two decades now, uncovering the market's best moneymaking trends and showing investors like you how to profit from the most undervalued opportunities in the world.

I've taken investment junkets all over the world... to historic oil boomtowns like Desdemona, Texas, to the Powder River Basin in Wyoming to Kiev, Ukraine. We've been to the heart of the oil sands industry, Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada. I've been blown away by a wind park in Palm Springs, California. And I've seen first-hand the natural gas boom in the Barnett Shale.

My investment insights and ideas have landed me frequent spots on financial shows like CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, CNN, Fox Business, and, most recently, C-SPAN... where I spoke on the energy markets and the U.S. dollar.

I'm not telling you this to be a showboat. But I want you to understand that it's this dedication and never-ending persistence that has allowed me to develop friendships and contacts with some of the best financial minds and industry insiders around the world.

And recently, it's allowed me to acquire a man who could easily be considered, with well over 1,153 successful trades under his belt, one of the best traders on the planet today.

His name is Ian Cooper.

And to get a better handle on why I cherry-picked Ian over any other research analyst out there, look no further than his track record...

120% on Royal Caribbean

194.12% on QQQ

269.52% on On2 Technologies

270% on ONT

268% on CYD

206.33% on VTSS

246% on IPIX

233% on TLTCJ

515.38% on MQJSB

225% on ETGP

302.15% on ASTM

And that's just to name a few. Had I shown you all of his winning trades just for the past 2 years, it would be five pages long.

His off-the-charts accuracy for reliably reading the markets, matched with his winner-after-winner track record, have plastered his sought-after advice on the pages of numerous publications. He's filled columns from Investor's Business Daily all the way to Forbes.

He's also frequently appeared on investment shows such as Money Matters with Barry Armstrong and On the Money with Mike Stein.

In other words, Ian is the real deal.

In the past few months, I'm willing to bet that you've gained valuable wisdom just from Ian's dead-on articles in Wealth Daily or Energy and Capital.

He's spotted scores of blockbuster buy and hold opportunities. But it's his knack for finding rapid, explosive trades - just like the one that could pay you double the gains oil makes - that brought him to the Pure Asset Trader team. After all, he's constantly...

Picking The Best Trades... Trade After Trade

Since starting our hottest trading advisory, The Pure Asset Trader we've already initiated and closed 91 trades.

80% of them closed for massive gains! In fact, each trade - winners and losers - is averaging +25%.

In other words, you're more than doubling your money every four trades!

Even more amazing is that his tight-knit group of investors (of which I'll show you how to become a part of) only holds each one of these trades for about 34 days.

Sometimes it's a matter of hours.

That means, on average, you're doubling your money every four months!

I can't think of a single other investment opportunity on the planet that could deliver those gains... especially in today's unpredictable market.

And according to Ian, with energy prices about to launch sky-high, he's lining up more and more knock-em down winners that he's already set to alert you to the moment the time's right.

Now, I could go on all day detailing the fast-moving trades Ian has been making and the ones he can't wait to share with you soon. But here's what I want you to walk away with...

To Make Money In This Market - Real Money - You Can Never Pigeonhole Yourself Into Just One Sector When Trading Best Stocks For 2010

To put it simply, you can't - no matter what - focus on one sector or industry in this economy if you want to make any serious money - or money at all.

The truth is, with the way things are going, the successful investors - the ones still churning gains like they're picking fish from a barrel - are the ones looking at the big picture.

They're not falling victim to investor's tunnel vision or "it'll come back... eventually" syndrome.

No. They're analyzing the past and current trends for everything and ANYTHING that could POP tomorrow - no matter where it is.

Be it best energy stocks for 2010, banking and financials, precious metals, best technology stocks for 2010, retail, fast food, you name it, and they're covering it.

For example, they were the investors who prepared themselves for impending online gambling legislation and stole a rapid 265% jump from the online gaming software developer Cryptologic as the bill gained momentum:

512 chart1

Then there's the 301% explosion they claimed in March from National Coal, as they saw energy prices starting were about to surge:

512 chart2

They were also the investors who knew, as the financial sector's collapse was set in stone and mass layoffs across the U.S. ensued, many Americans - seeking protection - would set the firearms industry ablaze.

Just take a look at the Dow over the past several months compared to Strum Ruger:

512 chart3

You get the point. They're successfully turning EVERY profitable corner of the market into their own personal printing press!

And right now, that hot sector they're raking in the most money from is Energy!

The best part is, these investors aren't taking super-risky "short" positions or margin calls where they need to cover their losses for the full value if things don't pan out.

They don't even need a lot of money up front!

In fact, all they need in most cases is a few hundred dollars to get started.

Just take a look at this scenario:

How Loosely Following Ian's Trading Research Turned $5,000 Into $58,913.14... in 6 Months

This is why you also need to be trading best stocks 2010 instead of strictly investing in "buy and holds." You see, with the right trades...

You don't need to start with a lot of money to make a fortune in the market... You don't need to have all your savings tied up in multiple investments for several years, either... You don't even need to find dozens of trades every year.

In fact, all you needed to make more than 10-times your initial investment was to loosely follow seven of them.

Take the following scenario, for example:

On November 30th, 2007, Ian alerted his investors to an amazing situation in the solar market. A leading company, LDK Solar, announced the ground-breaking of their latest polysilicon plant - news of which he knew would soon cause the share price to surge.

Because of his timely alert, his traders secured an entry price of $29.55.

And just five days later, on December 5th, he recommended readers sell half their position for a 49% gain. Two days later, the other half sold for a 41% gain - turning an initial stake of $5,000 into $7,250.

512 chart 1

Then, just 12 days later, on December 19th, he showed them another explosive opportunity: An options call on China Sunergy, after news of an amazing deal struck with a German manufacturing company.

Much like with LDK, readers took gains of 204% on the first half of their shares within six trading days. The second half claimed 141% after six more.

Suddenly, their $7,250 compounded into $19,756. It didn't end there, either.

On February 19th, 2008, he struck gold again. He alerted readers to what Ian called a "no brainer" with U.S. Natural Gas.

Like clockwork, two weeks later, his readers were sitting on an easy 80% gain as the first half sold... 140% gains on the second half, just a week later.

Within three weeks, your $19,759 turned into $41,488.13.

And then, on April 22nd, they were alerted to one of the many tiny oil and gas companies flocking to the riches within the Bakken oil formation.

Three weeks later, on May 15th, these hit-and-run traders sold their shares for an incredible 42% gain. 

512 chart 2

Today, that initial $5,000 investment - using just those seven alerts and reinvesting profits - is now worth $58,913.14! $10,000 would be $117,826.30 - all within six months!

That's the rapid-fire power trading offers you.

And I haven't even accounted for taking gains from the multiple other trades that Ian issued to his readers during that time... gains like 33% from Hoku Scientific in five days... 119% from Cree Inc. in six days... 118% from PetroQuest in 15 days... to name a few.

Just imagine how quickly you can compound your wealth with gains that large - gains that fast - again and again.

That's the sort of hit-and-run excitement you should expect by joining Pure Asset Trader. You can make a fortune from several rapid trades.

You see, when you sign onto Pure Asset Trader, you're enrolling into...

An Exclusive Trader's Club Unlike Any Other

Unfortunately, the number of investors who can sign up for our Pure Asset Trader is strictly limited.

In order to make sure every one of our subscribers has the ability to get maximum value out of each recommendation, membership will be strictly limited to 2,000 seats...

... most of which are already spoken for.

The first time we opened this window, nearly half of those seats were gobbled up by our premium, profit-hungry readers in the span of a weekend.

So it's important that you act quickly if you'd like to get in.

You see, we don't want 5,000... 10,000 people buying the same best stock. If we allowed an unlimited number to join, we could easily push the best stock 2010 up several hundred percent. That would be a disaster.

But if getting rich doesn't bother you, and you're ready to follow Ian as he shows you the secrets to landing dead-on hit and run trades in this market, I urge you to join right now.

http://www.angelnexus.com/o/op/12629

 

Get Ready

Another point I want to discuss is how the trades will be delivered to you. The trades will be sent via e-mail. No Faxes. That's because we want everybody to receive the trade at approximately the same time.

And just so that you don't have to recheck your email 10 times a day, we're also offering Pure Asset Trader updated VIA live RSS feeds - so you can get the alerts the split second they're available!

If you're comfortable with what I've said so far, I urge you to consider joining.

Again, I know this style of trading isn't for everybody. But by signing up for the Pure Asset Trader, you're elevating yourself into the top tier of the trading community. If you have second thoughts on the price or the frequency of recommendations, stop reading now... the service isn't for you.

If you're interested, welcome aboard. Let's get to work.

Now Listen Carefully

When you fill out the membership form (assuming there are remaining slots), you'll immediately receive a confirmation and a welcome letter, as well as a link to the Pure Asset Trader site where you'll be able to access every single one of the trades Ian issues 24 hours a day. We'll give you full instructions.

And that's not all!

You'll also learn about a secret investment that actually pays double the gains of any oil futures trader. All those details are in your free report, The Must-Own Oil Play... as Crude's Rally Goes Ballistic - just for trying us out.

Plus, by signing on today, I'll also rush you a free copy of my latest book, Profit From the Peak.

In short, Profit from the Peak is a roadmap that shows you how to profit from the rise of oil prices.

In the book, my colleague, Chris Nelder, and I go into full detail on tackling the world's energy problems... and how investors can maintain financial security in the process. I can say with confidence that Chris and I know a little more about today's energy markets than your average "oil expert."

You see, Chris is a well-regarded energy expert who has designed and built dozens of solar energy projects. This is a guy who understands the energy market inside and out... from energy's worst problems to its brightest solutions. And for the last decade, Chris and I have preached that investing is key to solving the world's energy challenges... Investments in a multitude of energy practices and technologies that will wean us away from our dependence on oil.

But we're also quick to point out that this blueprint for success also includes the economic harvesting of remaining and unconventional oil sources.

And again, in addition to full access to our web site, along with your free copy of Profit From the Peak, the moment a new trade is bought or sold you'll immediately be sent an email and, if you elect it, the RSS feed (We'll show you how to quickly and painlessly set up your RSS feed). The reason we're doing this is - we want everybody to be on equal footing. Our trades could arrive any time of the day, from 9am to 8pm.

So it's imperative you follow the instructions. This way you'll get the trade... and you'll have ample time to execute it.

By now, I'm sure you're wondering...

How Much Does Pure Asset Trader Cost?

Truth is, this level of service is highly specialized. And the countless hours it takes Ian to find, study, and recommend just one of the trades he uncovers - as you can imagine - takes a lot of time, expertise, and resources.

He doesn't draw best stocks 2010 from a hat. He's not paid by other companies to recommend one over the other. His secret is that he's an insomniac, sleeping just three hours a night.

The rest of the time, when other traders and researchers rest, spend time with their family, and take vacations, he's intently focusing on the latest news, studying the markets, and developing high-ranking contacts.

That is, however, precisely what it takes in order to hold a track record as clean as Ian's... a portfolio that scores investors like you the greatest energy trades the market has to offer.

Now, I've seen other "experts" billing themselves out for several thousand dollars a day - and their trading advice can't tread water next to the winners Ian shows you on a weekly basis.

That being said, I wouldn't feel the least bit guilty for charging as high as $5,000 a year for a membership to his advisory.

But I'm not going to go anywhere near that.

In fact, the normal membership price is $1,495 a year. But for the next 7 days, we're offering...

Pure Asset Trader's Bottleneck Bull-Market Special Pricing

By signing on to the Pure Asset Trader today, you'll save nearly 50% off the retail price... and have a full 60 days to decide if Ian's service is right for you.

Now I know for many of you $795 is a big lump of money to take down, even considering that many of you have made hundreds of thousands of dollars following our advice.

So here's the deal. We're also offering a quarterly bill program. If you choose that method, you'll be charged $249 every three months.

It's as easy as we can make it to get you on board.

Please keep in mind - we're capping Pure Asset Trader at 2,000 investors.

In addition, we want to make sure you're 100% satisfied. So, remember - if for any reason you're unhappy with Pure Asset Trader, you can get a full refund at any time before the end of the first 60 days of your membership. Beyond that, the refund is prorated.

But we can only extend this offer for the next 7 days.

The deadline is firm: Midnight on Saturday, May 30, 2009.

If you're committed to capturing the rebounding energy sector's biggest profits, please do act promptly.

To wrap up, here's what you'll get by joining Ian Cooper and his Pure Asset Trader team of investors:

Special Report # 1: The Must-Own Oil Play... as Crude's Rally Goes Ballistic

Special Report # 2: The 4 Best Natural Gas Stocks To Play Right Now

Ian's Pure Energy Trader video series, in which he reviews current trades, and shares the blockbuster trades he's getting ready to pull the trigger on

A free copy of our bestselling book, Profit From the Peak

Password-protected access to the Pure Asset Trader portfolio, including all new and closed recommendations and archived reports and research  

I urge you to act now. We fully expect every last seat to be taken in the next few days!